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Study finds county residents living 'dangerously'
It's a dubious distinction.A recent study by University of Virginia Professor William H. Lucy determined that Virginia's rural and suburban areas are more dangerous than its cities, including Richmond and Norfolk.
Based on data from 2003-07, Lucy's findings show that Clarke County was the most dangerous jurisdiction in the Northern Virginia region — followed by Fauquier County. Frederick County and Spotsylvania County are also in the top five.
On the other hand, the City of Alexandria was the safest larger jurisdiction based on data from the same five-year period. Arlington and Fairfax counties rounded out the top three safest jurisdictions in the region.
Fauquier County was the seventh most dangerous jurisdiction statewide.
But wait — there's a catch. Lucy, a professor of urban and environmental planning, based his findings on only two sets of data.
He analyzed traffic fatalities and homicides committed by strangers throughout the state, using data supplied by the Department of Motor Vehicles and the Virginia State Police. Death rates were based on the number of fatalities per 100,000 residents.
Tabulating traffic fatalities is the best method of measuring dangers associated with living outside of cities, according to Lucy. Speed limits in rural areas tend to be higher than those within cities, so even drivers involved in single-vehicle accidents are more likely to be injured or killed, he explained.
He also said he used data pertaining to the number of homicides committed by strangers because “those murders are most likely to happen when the victim is going about routine business outside the home — perhaps in the proximity of a dangerous area.”
By the numbers
Lucy conceded that it would have been “useful” to include additional data, such as the number of traffic injuries in addition to traffic fatalities, and statistics pertaining to other violent crimes, such as assaults. But that type of data is not as readily available in “good geographic form,” he said.
Figures from Lucy's study indicate that from 2003 to 2007, the average annual death rate stemming from traffic fatalities in Fauquier County was 25.2. The average annual death rate stemming from traffic fatalities and homicides committed by strangers in Fauquier County from 2003-07 was 25.7.
In comparison, the combined annual average in Loudoun County was 10.1 and the combined annual average in Prince William County was 9.2.
Cities that are often considered to be dangerous, like Richmond and Norfolk ranked 19th and 30th, respectively, in the number of traffic and homicide-by-stranger deaths. In all, 49 urban areas were included in the study.
The 10 safest jurisdictions included eight cities and two counties. They were: Manassas Park, Falls Church, Alexandria, Manassas, Charlottesville, Lynchburg, Virginia Beach, Colonial Heights, Arlington County and Fairfax County.
Even so, Fauquier County residents interviewed in November said even in an ailing economy, they feel safe right here.
“I've always felt safe here, and I've really got no concerns about crime [increasing because of the declining economy] whatsoever,” said New Baltimore resident Christy Sinclair. “I've got other things to worry about.”
E-mail the reporter: abogdanovic@timespapers.com
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