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Indictments loom over election in November
As the dust settles on one race, charges against a defeated opponent could cloud the outcome of the next race for Republican state Senate hopeful Jill Holtzman Vogel.
Calling the timing of the indictments against Republican Mark Tate “curious” and “odd,” Michael McDonald, a political science and international studies professor at George Mason University, said, “There’s going to be some bad feelings about how these indictments were handed down,” which could follow Vogel to the general election in November.
Three weeks before the Republican primary June 12, Tate, of Purcellville, was indicted on 11 felony charges, including two counts of election fraud and nine counts of perjury.
During the Republican primary for the 27th Senate District, Tate suggested the Vogel campaign had a hand in the timing of the charges against him.
These speculations prompted Vogel, of Upperville, to release a written statement on June 4 – a day before Tate was scheduled to appear in court -- saying, “The timing of my opponent’s indictments is unfortunate, but it is certainly not political hype.”
Tate awaits a hearing in the Loudoun County Circuit Court June 25. He faces as little as a monetary fine, or as much as 10 years in jail.
“I was curious about the indictments,” said McDonald, whose research includes voting behavior and political methodology. “It was kind of odd to see those indictments come at the time they did."
McDonald said the indictments could reflect badly on Vogel because she is a lawyer who specializes in ethics and campaign finance, and “she’s sharing an office with somebody who is drumming up these charges” against other candidates.
Vogel is also a former election law attorney for the Republican National Committee.
Vogel, who spent the days immediately after the election in Myrtle Beach, S.C., with her family, said it was “offensive to those working the judicial system” to think the charges were politically motivated.
“To be honest … we tried not to talk about it. I think anybody who knows the legal process knows that this would have happened. It’s not something we wanted or needed to win.”
McDonald agreed.
“It didn’t push her over the top,” he said adding that the margin between the candidates – about 30 percentage points –showed that Vogel would have dominated the race regardless of the charges.
Tate, who is back at work at his Middleburg restaurant, the Coach Stop, said he wasn’t sure what impact the indictment had on the outcome of the race.
“I don’t know, turnout was very low. … People who knew me turned out and voted,” he said.
This is the second time Tate has lost a state senate race. In 2003, he lost the Republican nomination to Russell Potts, who retired this year after leaving the party to running as an independent candidate for Virginia governor in 2005.
When asked what’s next, Tate said he was going to get some sleep and decide whether politics is in his future.
Vogel said her campaign was going to try to keep its positive momentum.
“We are continuing to do what we did in the primary,” she said. “Because it worked.”
It is unclear what the full effect of these indictments will have on Vogel, McDonald said.
"It's going to be an interesting race to watch," he said.
In November, Vogel will face Karen Schultz (D-Winchester), who with the help of former Gov. Mark Warner (D) raised more than $50,000 June 9, and independent Donald Marro, of The Plains.
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